Abstract: This study investigates the impact of traffic patterns on COVID-19 infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths across various U.S. states, leveraging the Susceptible- Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. During the 2020-2021 pandemic peak, traffic volumes plummeted due to governmental restrictions and public perception, showing initial significant decreases and a gradual return to pre-pandemic levels by 2021. By applying early pandemic traffic conditions to the SIR model, we predicted the potential reduction in COVID-19 cases and consequent healthcare outcomes. Our modified SIR equations, accounting for traffic changes, indicated that stricter traffic conditions could have significantly lowered infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths in the studied states. These results underscore the potential of managing traffic to mitigate healthcare system strain during pandemics, offering valuable insights for future pandemic preparedness strategies among practitioners, researchers, and policymakers. This foundation encourages further exploration into the interplay between mobility patterns and pandemic responses.

Dr. Scott Parr, Ph.D., P.E. is a professional engineer and associate professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in the Department of Civil Engineering. Dr. Parr co-founded and chairs the Joint-Subcommittee for Emergency Response, within the Transportation Research Board. He earned his Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from Louisiana State University specializing in Transportation Engineering and Emergency Management. Dr. Parr has published dozens of articles in peer reviewed journals and has participated as an expert panelist at conferences and workshops around the world. Dr. Parr serves as a subject area expert for several journals such as the Transportation Research Record, Journal of Emergency Management and American Society of Civil Engineer’s Natural Hazards Review. Dr. Parr has led research collaborations with the United States Department of Transportation, Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. Prior to his appointment at Embry-Riddle, Dr. Parr was an assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at California State University, Fullerton.